إستشراف لسياسات اقتصادية كلية بديلة في إطار عجز الموازنة في العراق

الملخص

    The budget deficit and internal and external imbalances have effected  in orientation towards a policy of economic liberalization and the adoption of market mechanisms and integration into the global market to address these imbalances, so the interest in the government fiscal deficit policy and its role in balancing internal and external is  appeared, therefore  it becomes important to focus on the study of the effectiveness of this policy and the factors affecting them and their economic effects to develop appropriate strategies in which to address the structural imbalances suffered by economies, the study tried to answer a range of questions, including:                           

1- Is The structural imbalances in the nature of the economy impact on the budget deficit?
2- Is The stability of monetary policy and low inflation effect on the budget deficit? .
3- What are the alternative policies needed to correct the structural imbalances.

The hypothesis of the study include that the structural internal and external imbalances  have an important impact on the budget deficit. To verify the validity this hypothesis we use the method of time series analysis and forecasting to release the economic relations between the budget deficit and the factors influencing it for the period 1990-2010 .. as well as developing strategies for macro-economic policies proposed to address the structural imbalances in the budget deficit in Iraq. the importance of the study lies in its attempt to provide an analysis of the nature of the Iraqi economy and the problems suffered by the result of reliance on oil as a major supplier to finance government spending, in which is reflected in the imbalance of the real sector as well as the weak role of the private sector. This is requires standing on the potential effects of the government deficit policy in economic activity and factors influencing them in light of unstable economic conditions

The study includes three chapters, the first of them includes the theoretical framework of the concept of the budget deficit while the second chapter analysis the relationship between the budget deficit and the factors affecting it and predict paths of these variables for future period, where Chapter III explained the future alternative macroeconomic policies to develop the structural imbalance suffered by the Iraqi economy.

The search had reached a set of conclusions that proved its hypothesis, stressing that the budget deficit is determined by factors and macroeconomic variables have on economic policy makers and decision-makers to take them into account when formulating fiscal policy to achieve internal and external balance