تحليل العلاقة بين تقلبات أسعار النفط الخام والإنفاق الحكومي في العراق للمدة(2004-2014)

الملخص

This study aims to analyze the correlation between the prices of raw oil and the governmental expenses in Iraq. It adopted the analytical and statistic approaches, which involves a econometric manner to estimate the correlation between the prices of raw oil and the governmental expenses, and test the nature and direction their correlation, depending on annual data of the period (2004-2014). One of the most important results arrived at by this study is that the temporal series of  the  study variables include a unit root, which is instable on the general level. It became so after taking the first difference of the series natural logarithm. Johnson's method indicates that there is a long - term correlation between the instability of raw oil prices and the governmental expenses, i.e., there is no much distance between the  two variables of the time series, and they have the same behavior. Also, the results of the causality test showed that there is one - direction cause relation from the prices of raw oil to the governmental expenses. This refers that there is positive relationship between them, i.e., if the prices increase, the governmental expenses will increases and vice versa         

Keywords: The prices of raw oil,  Governmental expenses, General budget