نمو الأقتصاد العراقي نحو عام 2040 سيناريو للمسار الرئيس

الملخص

Abstract

This research work presents a growth scenario within a macroeconomic framework for Iraq towards 2040. Drawing on worldwide patterns of growth and benchmarks of successful economic development, a set of quantitative norms has been adopted to simulate alternative courses of investment and growth. Considering the current state of oil revenue, potentialities of oil market, and non-oil production capabilities in Iraq, the scenario concluded at 8.04 %, as the annual rate of growth for the non- oil GDP and 6.81% for the overall economy. The paper elaborates on the significant changes that required in the sectoral output structure, through accelerated development of non-oil commodity activities. Therefore, structural impediments of Dutch disease, inefficiency of public sector investment programs, and passivity of bureaucracy should be removed. Although, increased global competition and technological change have made it more difficult for Iraq to industrialize, but there are no alternative routes to prosperity. Furthermore, the demand for foreign exchange and government expenditure are calculated based on alternative assumptions to close the two gaps by non-oil exports and new sources of revenue. The paper demonstrates the path of investment in terms of Gross Fixed Capital Formulation (GFCF) in oil and non – oil sector, which in the latter represent 36% of its GDP on average, and overall GFCF level will reach 27% of GDP. Furthermore, the growth has been analyzed and assessed by another model and the results are supporting. Also, internal rates of returns are deduced for better choice of public investment projects and capital budgeting control.

Key Words: Growth rates; non-oil Exports; non- oil commodity sector; GFCF; IRR.