سياسة الدين العام وخصائص الاقتصاد النفطي

الملخص

 The paper studies the interaction between deficit financing, monetary operations and financial markets that is to reconsider the concept of sovereign debt sustainability and the macroeconomic effects of debt monetization.

A framework of sovereign debt analysis is presented to help support effective debt policy, and management, in Iraq and the typical model of oil economy.

Term structure of interest rate spreads in relation with the sovereign credit rating, credit default swaps and the maturity of sovereign bonds have been thoroughly investigated.

The paper addresses the possibility and cost of debt rollover as the main determinants of external debt sustainability, in addition to the rollover task in the policy of internal debt. Also, sovereign bond yield spreads, of emerging market economies, over the interest rate of a risk- free debt instruments are presented in comparison with Iraq.   The indicators of debt burden and suggested limits of debt sustainability have been reviewed and assessed. Also, the Iraq- Paris club agreement for debt relief is presented and the bilateral debt restructuring based on.

 The macroeconomic framework for development has to assess the path of debt sustainability through interlink between interest rate, growth rate of GDP, inflation and potential primary surplus of budget.