Implications of Climate Change for Food Security in Erbil Governorate: An Analysis of Wheat and Barley Production (2003-2023)

Abstract

This research quantitatively analyzed the impacts of climate change on wheat and barley productivity in Erbil Governorate for the period 2003-2023. Using statistical time-series models, the study aimed to measure the relationship between climatic variables and crop productivity within a rain-fed agricultural system. The results revealed a positive and significant relationship between rainfall amount and productivity, with a 1% increase in precipitation leading to a 0.48% rise in wheat yield and a 0.45% rise in barley yield. The Granger causality test confirmed rainfall as the primary causal variable for productivity, while other variables showed no significant effect. Furthermore, the analysis revealed a concerning upward trend in minimum temperatures, indicating a risk of future heat stress. These findings underscore the vulnerable nature of the agricultural system and its near-total dependence on rainfall. Accordingly, the study recommends enhancing water management, adopting drought-resistant varieties, and activating early warning systems to strengthen the adaptive capacity of farmers.