Using the Augmented ARDL Model to Measure the Impact of Fiscal Policy Instruments on the Economic Dimension of the Sustainable Development Index for the Period 1990-2020

Abstract

The research aims to conduct a test of the augmented autoregressive model of enhanced distributed lag model to show the impact of government spending (GE) and TXes (TX) as derived variables that represent the fiscal policy tools in the dependent variable Average per capita gross domestic product (AGDP) as one of the most important pillars of the indicators of the economic dimension of sustainable development in Iraq for the period from 1990 to 2020, and from the goal the research hypothesis was based on two hypotheses, the first is nihilistic, and stipulated that there is no economic impact of the independent variables on the dependent, the hypothesis  The second is an alternative, and provided for an economic impact between the variables under study. After conducting the quantitative standard test, the study reached the result of the first nihilistic hypothesis in its form  as a result of the insignificance of the Overall F-Bounds Test for all independent variables and the dependent variable, as the calculated value of (F-statistic/4.627663) showed less than the critical upper values at (5%), so it was failed to reject the null hypothesis (Fail to Reject), so we decide that there is no common integration relationship between the  و  variables, (No Cointegrating Relationship). It is due to the structural imbalances experienced by the Iraqi economy, and this was reached through the analysis of the time series of the variables included in the study.