قياس وتحليل أثر السياستين المالية والنقدية على معدلات البطالة في العراق للمدة (1990-2020)

Abstract

The current research aims to experimentally verify the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on unemployment rates in Iraq for the period 1990-2020. The Autoregressive distributed lag model ARDL was used to build a model that includes the tools of both policies together to show the degree of integration and coordination between them in influencing unemployment rates. The research found an inverse and significant relationship for all fiscal policy variables on unemployment rates in the short term. While both GDP and oil revenue variables were positively and significantly associated with unemployment in the long run, thus contradicting the economic theory. Monetary policy tools vary in their impact on unemployment rates, as the discount rate is the most influential tool on unemployment, in addition to the insignificance of the interest rate in its impact on unemployment rates. As for coordination between the two policies, the results indicated the existence of coordination between the two policies in their impact on unemployment, with a variation in the impact of the tools used for the two policies, but their impact was weak based on the sizes of the estimated parameters. One of the most important proposals reached by the research is to work on enhancing coordination between fiscal and monetary policy by removing all obstacles to the independence of the central bank and searching for other sources to finance the deficit in the general budget instead of relying on the issuance of money.