Analysis of the relationship between some economic indicators and the terrorism index in Iraq and predicting terrorism using the ARMA model

Abstract

This study deals with the impact of growth rates of some economic indicators in Iraq such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, income inequality and political stability index, with the changes in the terrorism index TI during the period 2000-2020. Then, predict the annual terrorism index for Iraq using the ARAM model. The results showed that terrorism increased by 60% in 2003, causing the GDP to decrease to 36.7%. Terrorist threats in Iraq increased after 2014, causing the unemployment rate to increase by 20% in 2017 and income inequality to increase by 12%. Political stability reached its lowest point in 2011, with a decrease of 17.4%. Overall, the average growth of terrorism increased by 3.6%, causing fluctuations in the average rates of GDP, inflation,