The Influence of Some Economic and Non-Economic Factors on Terrorism in the Seven Most Affected Countries During the Years 2000–2021

Abstract

The aim of this study to inspect the influence of some economic and non-economic factors such as political, demographic, on terrorism in seven countries; Iraq, Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen during the years 2000-2021. Panel data analysis is used to create two types of models: one with purely economic variables and another with a mix of economic, political, and demographic variables. The initial results showed that random effect models(REM) are suitable for economic regressors and fixed effect models(FEM) for the mixed. After determining the relevance of the lag-dependent variable,dynamic Auto Regressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) models are developed. The selected PMG models reveal existence of a negative relationship between growth rate of GDP and terrorism. While a positive relationship exists between inflation rate and terrorism. Economic Globalization has a negative impact on terrorism in the short-run. The economic PMG model corrects its past period disequilibrium at a rate of 10.9% annually, resulting in a long-term impact on terrorism's consequences. While the model of mixed factors corrects disequilibrium at 25.6%