Predicting the sustainability of the state employees’ pension fund using classical statistical methods and artificial intelligence techniques

تأثير تطبيق قواعد الهندسة البشرية في رفع مستوى الصحة التنظيمية دراسة استطلاعية في جامعه النهرين كليه اقتصاديات الأعمال

Abstract

The current research aims to predict the ability of the State Employees Retirement Fund to fulfill its obligations towards retirees for the period (2024-2035) using classical statistical methods and machine learning technology, one of the artificial intelligence techniques, and based on historical data of the State Employees Retirement Fund (number of retirees, retirement salaries, and revenues)for the years (2010-2023). The descriptive analysis method and the case study method were adopted to achieve this goal. The research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that it is possible to predict the number of retirees, retirement salaries, and revenues of the State Employees Retirement Fund and the sustainability of this fund in the coming years more accurately than the traditional method currently adopted by the fund, by using classical statistical methods for prediction as well as using machine learning technology, one of the artificial intelligence techniques, and that the State Employees Retirement Fund will suffer from a deficit in the coming years. The research recommended the necessity of planning and taking a set of strategic decisions by the management of the State Employees Retirement Fund to overcome this deficit and ensure the sustainability of the fund and protect successive generations.