Measuring and analyzing the relationship between the exchange rate and the Iraqi agricultural GDP for the period (2004-2022)

Abstract

The research aims to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of changes in the exchange rate on agricultural GDP and the extent of the relationship between them in causal relationships according to the economic theory، and to demonstrate the importance of the exchange rate on agricultural exports and its increase in imports of foreign agricultural goods، and its impact on the growth of the Iraqi agricultural GDP. The research is based on a hypothesis that posits the existence of a long-term, non-linear, direct relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural GDP. The study adopts the deductive analysis method in line with the nature and subject of the research to measure and analyze the impact of the relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural GDP in Iraq for the period (2022-2004). The research results showed that there is a long-term, non-linear direct relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural GDP. When the exchange rate increases، represented by the reduction in the value of the Iraqi dinar، it has a different effect than its decrease in the agricultural GDP of Iraq، as increasing the exchange rate by a certain percentage will increase the agricultural GDP by about four times that increase، while decreasing the exchange rate by a certain percentage will reduce the agricultural GDP by about twice that percentage. Thus، the effect of the exchange rate on the GDP is High، and recommendations were made on the need to increase support provided to the agricultural sector to increase productivity growth rates