Measuring and Analyzing the Relationship Between Oil Revenues and the Structural Imbalance of Production in the Iraqi Economy During the Period (2004–2024)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of a rentier-based economic structure on the Iraqi economy, highlighting how reliance on oil revenues has exacerbated the symptoms of the “Dutch Disease” and weakened the performance of non-oil productive sectors. Based on the assumption that economic mono-dependency undermines competitiveness and induces structural imbalances, the research aims to analyze and measure the effect of oil revenues on Dutch Disease indicators in Iraq over the period 2004–2024, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The findings reveal a significant positive relationship between oil revenues and the booming sector, alongside an insignificant relationship with the lagging sectors. The study concludes with strategic recommendations aimed at diversifying the economic base and fostering sustainable development.