Measuring and analyzing the interrelationship between public debt and some macroeconomic variables in Iraq for the period (2003-2023)

Abstract

The study aimed to measure and analyze the interrelationship between public debt and some macroeconomic variables in Iraq during the period 2003-2023. These variables included public debt and some macroeconomic variables (public expenditures, broad money supply, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and foreign exchange rates), and to determine the nature of the relationship between these variables. The deductive approach and the quantitative approach were used for time series data collected from official and international sources, using the ARDL model to estimate the interrelationship between public debt and some macroeconomic variables in Iraq. The study reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is that there is a reciprocal relationship between public debt and each of the macroeconomic variables (public expenditures, broad money supply, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and foreign exchange rates). The study also showed that the relationship between public debt and each of (public expenditures, broad money supply, and exchange rate) is a direct relationship, while the study found that the relationship between public debt and each of (GDP and inflation rate) is an inverse relationship.