The Hormuz Shock: The economic repercussions of the war on Iran and its impact on Iraqi budget revenues, a forward-looking study

Abstract

This study examines the economic repercussions of the US-Israeli military operation launched on February 8, 2016, against the Islamic Republic of Iran, focusing on its impact on the Iraqi economy, which is closely linked to Iran through energy, trade, and financial ties. The study employed descriptive-analytical and econometric methodologies, utilizing a linear regression model using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method to estimate the magnitude of the impact of the main explanatory variables: the price of a barrel of crude oil, the level of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and bilateral trade shocks, on Iraqi budget revenues