Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of the Tourism Sector on Economic Growth in Iraq During the Period (2000–2022)

Abstract

Tourism is considered one of the important economic sectors that can effectively contribute to economic growth, especially in developing countries such as Iraq, which possesses diverse tourism potentials, including religious, historical, and natural attractions. However, this sector has not been optimally invested due to the unstable political, security, and economic conditions the country has experienced during periods of economic downturn and structural fluctuations, which hindered the full impact of tourism on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Given the importance of this sector, the research aims to measure and analyze the impact of tourism on economic growth in Iraq during the period (2000–2022) This study has applied (ARDL (model to determine the relationship between explanatory and depending variables such as (gross domestic product a depending variables and number of tourists, tourism revenues, gross fixed capital formation, total labor force, and exchange rate) in the short and long term. The study found a number of conclusions, but the main finding was that most of the explanatory factors have a positive effect on economic growth. In particular, the study found that an increase in tourism and its associated income has had a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Non-economic issues, like the rise of ISIS and the COVID-19 pandemic, were identified as having a detrimental impact on economic growth. The research concludes with a recommendation to adopt flexible economic policies that support the revitalization of the tourism sector and create a safe, attractive environment for tourists. Such policies would promote income diversification, reduce excessive reliance on the oil sector, enhance employment opportunities, and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development.