The Potential for Achieving Food Security through Self-Sufficiency in the Context of Climate Change: An Econometric Study in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq for the Period (2004–2023)

Abstract

This study investigates the potential to achieve food security in the Kurdistan Region amid ongoing climate change by examining self-sufficiency and climate variables from 2004 to 2023 using an ARDL model with quarterly data in EViews. Results show that rainfall has a positive and significant long-run effect on self-sufficiency, while temperature has a negative long-run impact. The ECM coefficient (-1.6) indicates rapid adjustment within one quarter. CO₂ emissions and humidity have significant short-term negative effects. Recommendations include enhancing water resource management infrastructure, developing early warning systems, and integrating agricultural and climate policies to strengthen food security.