Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Energy Consumption on Green Economic Growth in Iraq: An Econometric Study for the Period (1990-2024)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of energy consumption on green economic growth in Iraq over the period 1990–2024, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model within the framework of the Green Solow Model, based on annual national data. The model includes capital (K), labour (L), renewable energy consumption (REC), non-renewable energy consumption (NREC), and technology (A) measured by research and development (R&D) expenditure — as determinants of green GDP (GGDP). The empirical results reveal a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables, with a significant negative error-correction term (−0.463), indicating that around 46% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually. Renewable energy and technological innovation positively and significantly affect green growth, while non-renewable energy exerts a significant negative effect. Capital and labour maintain a limited positive contribution. The model shows strong explanatory power (R² = 0.823) and structural stability according to diagnostic tests. The findings highlight that Iraq’s transition toward renewable energy and increased investment in green technology are fundamental pathways for achieving sustainable green economic growth