Analysis of the causal relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth in Turkey for the period 2001-2020

Abstract

The research aims to clarify the reasons for the high tourism returns and economic growth in Turkey for the period 2001-2020, and then to show the causal relationship between the two variables. The research followed the modern standard quantitative analysis method using the co-integration method, and the research reached several results, including:

• We conclude that tourism revenues increased during the research period due to the development of non-traditional tourism patterns, the adoption of encouraging policies for tourism, the faltering of tourism in neighboring countries, especially in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel, and the spread of Turkish drama encouraged many families to take tourist trips to Turkey and a great development in Turkish airlines.
• The research found that tourism returns lead to a one-way causality in the growth of the Turkish economy during the period (2001-2020).
• The research showed that there is a causal relationship between the two variables in one direction at a moral level of 10%, that is, the tourism returns variable caused economic growth and therefore it can be said that tourism leads the Turkish economic growth.
• The research found that there is at least one integration relationship between the two research variables, according to the Trace test and the Maximum Eigenvalue test.

The research concluded by presenting several proposals, including:

1-The Iraqi Ministry of Transport and Communications must work on developing, renewing, and expanding Iraqi Airways to compete with the airlines of neighboring countries.

2- It is the responsibility of the Investment Commission in Iraq and the region to work on facilitating and encouraging the flow of foreign investment into the tourism sector, to promote growth in Iraq.

3-It is the responsibility of the Central Bank of Iraq to work on the establishment of the tourist bank, like the rest of the economic sectors, represented by the real estate, industrial and agricultural banks.