Analysis of the impact of public spending on the unemployment index in Iraq for the period (2004-2020)

Abstract

The research aims to analyze the impact of public expenditure on the unemployment rate in Iraq for the period from 2004 to 2020. It seeks to determine the extent to which fiscal policy contributes to reducing the unemployment rate by studying the temporal evolution of public expenditures and unemployment rates. The research adopts an exploratory approach to describe and analyze the variables. Additionally, it utilizes the simple linear regression method to analyze the relationship and measure the impact of public expenditure on the unemployment rate. The statistical software SPSS v26 is employed for data analysis. The research includes data on the total annual public expenditure and unemployment indicators for the specified period. The study concludes several key findings, including a strong inverse correlation between public expenditure and the unemployment rate. It identifies a significant impact of public expenditure on the unemployment rate, accounting for 62.8%. Based on these findings, the research recommends several actions, including intensifying research efforts to study other factors influencing unemployment, adopting a balanced fiscal policy that supports investment projects, and emphasizing the need to diversify the Iraqi economy rather than relying solely on oil as the primary source of general revenue.