Analysis of the dynamic relationship between governance indicators and Iraqi oil production for the period (2003-2021)

Abstract

The study analyzed the dynamic relationship between indicators of governance and Iraqi oil production for the period (2003-2021), and the problem of the study lies in the following question: Is there a relationship between indicators of governance and Iraqi oil production? The hypothesis of the study is that:

1- The study assumes that there is a direct effect of each of (voting and questioning, political stability and the absence of violence and terrorism, organizational quality: the rules of law) on the production of crude oil.

2- The study hypothesizes that there is a negative effect of the indicators (government effectiveness, control of corruption) on crude oil production

The study reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are:

1- There is a direct, long-term equilibrium relationship, that is, the greatest effect when applying the rules of the law, as when increasing the application of the law by one degree, it contributes to an increase in crude oil production by 1.8 million barrels annually. While the least impact of regulatory quality on Iraqi oil production.

2- There is an inverse long-term equilibrium relationship, that is, the indicator is due to the weak government effectiveness and control of corruption, which have a negative impact on increasing crude oil production due to the smuggling of crude oil and the spread of corruption in government contracts.

Based on the conclusions, we recommend the following:

1-It is imperative for the Iraqi government - the Council of Ministers to establish a government body to implement governance standards in all Iraqi government institutions, especially the Iraqi Ministry of Oil.

2- It is the responsibility of the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs to work on activating the role of economic diplomacy to attract more investments towards the Iraqi economy, especially in the field of natural gas investment.

3- It is the responsibility of the Iraqi Council of Representatives to reconsider the enactment of strict anti-corruption laws, especially in the Iraqi oil sector.