Analysis of food security indicators in the Kurdistan Region - Iraq for the period 2010-2020

Abstract

The study aims to show the indicators of food security, represented by the percentage of self-sufficiency, the food gap, and the virtual and real food dependence, as well as clarify the role of the ration in enhancing food security for the population of the Kurdistan Region - Iraq. The study has reached several conclusions, including:

1. It was reached to accept the hypothesis that there is a fluctuation of the wheat gap in the region between deficit and surplus, and this is due to the lack of flour distribution in the ration and the phenomenon of drought. While the rice gap is in a state of continuous deficit, and this deficit is due to the decrease in surface and groundwater, in addition to the decrease in the land allocated for rice, the high population, and the creeping urbanization at the expense of agricultural land in the areas designated for rice production.
2. It was reached to accept the hypothesis that the self-sufficiency rate of wheat exceeds (100%), and it is due to the increase in production to a degree that exceeds the consumption of wheat and then exporting it outside the region. While the self-sufficiency rate of the rice crop is low for all years, this is due to the low horizontal expansion, as well as climatic changes and drought in the region.
3. It was reached to accept the hypothesis that the problem of food insecurity is low from the wheat crop and the negative dependency exists in the years (2010, 2011, 2012), while in the remaining years in the study period, all the dependency is positive, and therefore foreign exchange flows into the Kurdistan Region
4. The results of the study showed that the distribution of cereals (flour and rice) according to the ration achieved a negative growth, and this decline is due to the lack of distribution of the amount of flour and rice due to the spread of corruption in the Iraqi Ministry of Trade and the branches operating in the Kurdistan Region.
5. It was reached to accept the hypothesis that the real gap for wheat and rice during the study period is in a state of continuous deficit, and there is a deficit in all years for the number of calories, as for protein is greater than the global average in the region, while the percentage of real self-sufficiency during the study period in In all years, calories are less than (100%), while the percentage of protein is greater than the percentage of the global average. Regarding the percentage of real dependence on grains, there is a negative dependence on calories, while there is a positive dependence on protein in the Kurdistan Region. The study concluded with several recommendations, including:

1- It is the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the regional government to work to reduce the volume of imports that have a significant impact on harming local production and thus lead to an increase in the size of the food gap in the Kurdistan Region.

2- Establishing a bank to support farmers (such as the Grameen Bank), as happened in the state of Bangladesh, to stabilize the population in their lands and direct them towards agricultural production in the basic form and other professions in the countryside of the Kurdistan Region.

3- It is the responsibility of the National Council of the Kurdistan Region to work on enacting and issuing a special law related to food security, similar to the Iraqi Council of Representatives, to ensure food security in the future.

4- It is the responsibility of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers of the Kurdistan Region to work on establishing four silos designated for storing wheat in each of the provinces of the region so that they are sufficient to store the needs of one year of wheat for the population, to ensure sustainable food security in the Kurdistan Region.