التنويع في الأقتصاد المعتمد على الصادرات النفطية بالإشارة إلى دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي

الملخص

A narrowly-based oil-driven economy tends to be highly vulnerable on the price cycle. Diversified export oriented non-oil commodity sector is a necessary condition for a long-term economic development as a catch-up process.to the most advanced countries  

 Development experience in Iraq shows that diversifying away from oil is very difficult due to a number of barriers related to Dutch disease, socio-political environment of economic policies and business activities, shortage of infrastructure, and limited technical and organizational capabilities.

    The current economic  management of GCC made good achievements in infrastructure and social services and helped raise standard of living, but has yielded few outcomes in diversification. The share of non-oil sector in GCC's GDP has increased but its output is highly correlated with oil revenue.

By using  an empirical approach, this study analyses the relationship between diversification and a number of explanatory varibles including income and population. Also, Stylized facts presented by using UNCTAD data and World Bank WDI, in addition to the findings of relevant research works. Effects of fuel export on capital formation, government expenditure, and economic growth have been tested. Further research works are recommended, particularly to elaborate on industrialization and investment programs.